The Demographics Research Group at the Weldon Cooper Center is recognized throughout Virginia as the definitive source for population data, for analysis of that data, and for the identification of the impact of population trends on state and local governments. We produce the official annual state school-age population estimates, by which a portion of the state sales and use tax is allocated to localities. This background informs our expertise in enrollment projections for individual school divisions, including more than 100 standardized and customized projections developed under contract over the past five years.

Read about School Enrollment in Virginia

Request Cooper Center School Enrollment Projections

Our school population data experts produce school enrollment projections at the division level—and also for individual schools—on contract basis, upon request. We combine our extensive experience with Virginia communities and school divisions with high standards for excellence. For example, because we know that state birth data may inaccurately assign births to—or away from—a locality, we create a database of the state birth data geocoded by our experts to improve accuracy. This higher quality geography-specific birth data is a central element in school enrollment projections. See our FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS for additional information.

Standard Projections

Standard five-year projections by grade using the grade progression ratio method can be produced for a fee and will be delivered 10 business days from the date we receive required input data from the school division. Expedited service may be available for an additional charge. Contact Hamilton Lombard at 434-982-5698 or hamilton.lombard@virginia.edu.

Customized Projections

Comprehensive, customized studies incorporating local population dynamics, housing trends, and other data are also available. Fees for such studies vary, depending on the scale and complexity of the project. Please contact Qian Cai at 434-982-5581.