We cover a range of topics in our reports including population numbers and trends, education and school enrollment, migration, urban and rural areas, and race and ethnicity. To read our most recent reports, visit our StatChat web series. Our older reports can be found in here.

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Comparing 2020 Virginia Population Projections to the Census Count

Overall, the 2020 Virginia projection results were highly accurate: statewide the projected population total was only 0.27% higher than the actual Census count, and over 90% of the localities were projected within 5% range of the decennial headcount. Using the 2020 Census and data from previous decades, we plan to develop and release the 2030, 2040, and 2050 projections in July 2022.

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Why census data needs to be treated with caution

Despite the vast amount of time and money spent on the census, much of the 2020 Census data released earlier this month will be difficult or impossible to use. To help data users process the 2020 census results, we will be analyzing 2020 Census data and sharing our findings, including important demographic trends that are clear in the data and some of the key problems we’ve identified in the data.

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Who practices what religion where in Virginia?

A demographer and religious studies grad student explore the religious makeup of Virginia and its localities—specifically, the importance of geography in determining a region’s religious characterization. Were individuals more likely to live in a certain location if they practiced a particular religion? Does the assumption that major metro areas are more likely to harbor diverse religious communities’ hold true within Virginia?

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How accurate are our 50-state population projections?

The answer: the accuracy of our projections is very good!

Nationally, we projected the 2020 U.S. population to be 332,527,548, which is slightly over the Census count of 331,449,281, representing a difference of 0.33%. Our projection is also slightly closer to the actual count than the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest1 projection of 332,639,000.

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